A bottoms-up, three-statement model where every number traces to an assumption you can defend. Built with AI at scale, checked line by line by a human. Every blue cell yours to change.
| From a real build | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $0.8M | $8.5M | $51.6M |
| EBITDA | ($2.3M) | ($4.8M) | $16.4M |
| LTV / CAC | 4.9x | 8.4x | 14.2x |
| CAC payback | 17.0 mo | 10.0 mo | 5.9 mo |
| Y5 revenue / capital raised | 4.3x |
None of them are about the numbers being small. All of them are about the numbers being indefensible.
"1% of a huge market" works backwards from a dream. Investors smell it in seconds, because nothing in the model explains how a single customer actually arrives.
A balance sheet that's off by a little. Cash that never reconciles. One broken link is enough: if that's wrong, what else is? The whole model becomes suspect.
A CAC with no source. Churn nobody can explain. The spreadsheet exists but the answers don't, and the meeting turns into an interrogation you lose.
Hardware plus SaaS, a $12M capital plan, EBITDA break-even through revenue growth. Click through the tabs the way an investor would.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||
| Total revenue ($M) | $0.8M | $3.8M | $8.5M | $24.9M | $51.6M |
| Hardware revenue ($M) | $0.4M | $2.3M | $4.8M | $15.0M | $29.4M |
| SaaS revenue / ARR ($M) | $0.2M | $1.2M | $3.2M | $9.5M | $21.8M |
| Y/Y growth % | - | 354.8% | 124.3% | 194.0% | 107.1% |
| Profitability | |||||
| Gross margin % | 33.9% | 35.5% | 44.8% | 53.7% | 61.4% |
| EBITDA ($M) | -$2.3M | -$3.5M | -$4.8M | $1.9M | $16.4M |
| Customers & team | |||||
| Cumulative customers | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 20 |
| New hardware units shipped | 80 | 460 | 937 | 2,855 | 5,570 |
| Total FTEs | 11.0 | 22.5 | 38.0 | 47.5 | 56.5 |
| Funding & key ratio | |||||
| Cumulative capital raised ($M) | $5.0M | $6.5M | $12.0M | $12.0M | $12.0M |
| Y5 revenue / cumulative capital raised | 4.3x | ||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net revenue | $831,021 | $3,779,527 | $8,476,332 | $24,924,467 | $51,630,042 |
| Total COGS | $549,668 | $2,439,661 | $4,676,143 | $11,530,269 | $19,910,859 |
| Gross profit | $281,353 | $1,339,865 | $3,800,190 | $13,394,198 | $31,719,183 |
| Gross margin % | 33.9% | 35.5% | 44.8% | 53.7% | 61.4% |
| Operating expenses | |||||
| R&D / Engineering | $1,608,125 | $2,321,800 | $3,329,533 | $3,470,419 | $3,614,031 |
| Sales & Marketing | $322,732 | $911,237 | $2,197,271 | $3,776,354 | $6,332,011 |
| G&A + Manufacturing / Ops | $661,250 | $1,641,410 | $3,067,833 | $4,208,849 | $5,333,626 |
| Total OpEx | $2,592,107 | $4,874,447 | $8,594,636 | $11,455,622 | $15,279,668 |
| EBITDA | ($2,310,754) | ($3,534,581) | ($4,794,447) | $1,938,576 | $16,439,515 |
| EBITDA margin % | (278.1%) | (93.5%) | (56.6%) | 7.8% | 31.8% |
| Net income | ($2,360,754) | ($3,634,581) | ($4,994,447) | $1,254,975 | $12,592,217 |
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | ($2,360,754) | ($3,734,581) | ($4,944,447) | $1,004,975 | $12,292,217 |
| CapEx (lab equipment, mfg tooling) | ($200,000) | ($350,000) | ($500,000) | ($650,000) | ($800,000) |
| Capital raised | $5,000,000 | $1,500,000 | $5,500,000 | - | - |
| Ending cash | $2,939,246 | $354,665 | $410,218 | $765,193 | $12,257,410 |
| Burn & runway | |||||
| Monthly burn | $213,396 | $340,382 | $453,704 | ($29,581) | ($957,685) |
| Months of runway from year-end cash | 13.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | sustainable | sustainable |
| Cumulative capital raised | $5,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| Y5 revenue / cumulative raised | 4.3x | ||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ending ARR (annualised run-rate) | $176,000 | $1,188,000 | $3,249,400 | $9,530,400 | $21,784,400 |
| ARR growth % | - | 575.0% | 173.5% | 193.3% | 128.6% |
| Net revenue retention (NRR) | 110.0% | 110.0% | 110.0% | 110.0% | 110.0% |
| LTV & CAC | |||||
| New customers in year | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| CAC per new customer | $150,000 | $195,000 | $220,000 | $295,000 | $375,000 |
| LTV (gross-profit based) | $739,200 | $1,718,640 | $1,848,096 | $3,438,275 | $5,337,178 |
| LTV / CAC ratio | 4.9x | 8.8x | 8.4x | 11.7x | 14.2x |
| CAC payback (months) | 17.0 mo | 9.5 mo | 10.0 mo | 7.2 mo | 5.9 mo |
Three engagements, three different businesses, the same standard.
Five rules, none of them negotiable. They're why the model survives the meeting.
Revenue is built from buyers, frequency and price, never from a percentage of a market report. If a customer can't be traced, the revenue doesn't exist.
One assumptions sheet controls the workbook. Each input is blue, editable and carries its source. There are no mystery cells.
Balance sheet to zero every year. Cash flow reconciling to the balance sheet cash. Cross-sheet links, never pasted values. Fail one, it doesn't ship.
The colour conventions analysts are trained on: blue inputs, ink formulas, green outputs, cream key rows. Familiar in the first ten seconds.
Base, upside and stress scenarios with the questions pre-answered: growth halves, CAC doubles, launch slips a quarter. You've seen the bad news first.
If the numbers don't support your raise, you hear it from me before an investor says it, along with what milestone the raise can honestly fund. I don't inflate models to flatter founders.
What you're building, what you're raising, and any numbers you already have, however rough.
Scope and the flat fee confirmed in writing, payment link in the same thread. No calls needed.
The machine does the heavy lifting. A human checks every formula and runs the tie checks before anything ships.
The model in minutes, with a written walkthrough so you can defend every number without me in the room.
The model on its own, or the whole raise in one go.
Launch month only. Lock the founder rate before the price returns to the struck figure.Send your idea on WhatsApp and you'll get back exactly what your model needs to show, free, before any payment.
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